Overall rating Algorithm


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vinnie
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Overall rating Algorithm

Postby vinnie » 2014 Sep 07, 05:41

Something that's always bothered me is how there doesn't yet exist a useful overall rating algorithm to accurately reflect a players prowess and worth. I like overall ratings, they can give you an easy and general understanding of a player's full talent potential, and are very useful for browsers or users, IF they are accurate or intelligently calculated.

Most of us that regularly contribute here don't need an overall rating to understand a players overall worth, but having an algorithm will make things very easy to compare and get a general understanding of a player's overall rating by us through the individual attributes as a collective, at a glance for those who aren't as in depth as some of us are.

The fact that such an overall rating method doesn't exist annoys me.

Therefore i put a little time just now in trying to make one work. So far i have this for the CF position:

So i've been trying to rework the CF overalls.. i think i've got something that can be used off the bat.

the algorithm i used before was too focused on trying to realise overalls that i wanted, and there were so many additional rules concerning stars and form, injury tolerance etc that anytime i had to tweak something to better balance the formula, that fucker became a nightmare to keep track of.

not to mention, who gives a shit about all that crap.

This adjusted one is simply about stats, no accountance of inury tolerance or stars, and form only has a down effect, i.e 4 or below is -1, 2 is -2, 1 is -3 (OVR).

Also i made the key attributes more heavily weighted.. so that the all around players who aren't exceptional don't manage to get great OVR values. But the increased all around weigthing on attacking attributes is higher, so a CF like Sturridge isn't underrated. In the original calcs, he was an 82. With this one, he's at 86.

This is how it looks for CF's.

ATT1.3
DEF 0.05
BB 1
STA 0.25
TS 0.65
ACC 0.75
RES 1.3
DA 0.6
DS 0.45
AGI 0.25
SPA 0.35
SPS 0.1
LPA 0.2
LPS 0.05
SA 1.1
SPS 0.65
ST 1.3
TEC 0.55
HEA 1.3
JUM 0.95
MEN 0.4
TW 0.3
FK 0.1
CUR 0.05
AGG 1.1
TOTAL
x 15.1
-380





List of calculated Overalls so far:

CF


Spoiler: show
Ronaldo : 97

Marco Van Basten : 97

Gerd : 96

Ruud Van Nistelrooy : 96

Shearer : 96

Falcao : 96

Weah : 96

Romario : 95

Batistuta : 95

Shevchenko : 95

Vieri : 94

Papin : 94

Klinnsman : 94

Drogba : 94

Suarez : 93

Henry : 93

Cantona : 93

Voller : 93

Trezeguet : 93

Eto'o : 93

Owen : 92

Aguero : 92

Wright : 92

Torres : 92

Crespo : 92

Butragueno : 92

Zamorano : 92

Zlatan : 91

Tevez : 91

Van Persie : 91

Diego Costa : 91

Villa : 91

Inzaghi : 91

Šuker : 91

Mark Hughes : 91

Diego Milito : 90

Cavani : 90

Rooney : 90

Kluivert : 90

B. Laudrup : 90

Andy Cole : 90

Linekaar : 89

Lewandowski : 89

Edin Džeko : 89

Huntelaar : 89

Palermo : 89

Di Natale : 89

Higuain : 89

Negredo : 89

Solskjær : 89

Benzema : 88

Mandzukic : 88

Kießling : 88

Chicharito : 88

Bacca : 88

Kevin Phillips: 87

Aubameyang : 87

Yilmaz : 87

Palacio : 87

Sturridge: 86

Adebayor : 86

Giroud : 86

Bony : 86

Gignac : 86

Immobile: 86

Remy : 86

Benteke : 85

Kanu : 85

Luca Toni : 85

Gameiro : 85

Andy Caroll : 84

Balotelli : 84

Welbeck : 84

Lukaku : 84

Papiss Cissé : 84

Paco Alcácer : 84

Llorente : 83

Uche : 83

Helmes : 83

Lambert : 83

Emenike : 83

Fred : 82

Jelavic : 82

Raúl Jiménez : 82

Altidore : 82

Van Wolfswinkel : 81

Xisco : 80

Crouch : 79




It's still flawed, but i think it gets the lower tier strikers right if you talk about their overalls, the likes of bony, giroud, benteke, palaciao. i'm happy about that at the least.


Take into consideration that any little set flaws or inflations (i.e needlessly high fk/curl, etc) will contribute to inaccurate ratings.. to it's hard to get this perfect, i just like this balance, so that poachers don't totally reign supreme, and the lazier but technically gifted aren't undermined by a CF templative demand.
If i took the PSD Hakan Sukur set and used the algorithm, he comes out as a 93.. and honestly looking at the set, that's an overall that makes sense, as his set makes him look like a monstrosity of a CF.. but if i used the default classic Sukur stats for the algorithm, he comes out as only 89. There was a huge difference between the default classic Sukur and the PSD Sukur, so outdated sets can be a problem clearly.

Also, the differences between some of these players is often not really an entire point, often it's maybe even a difference of 0.2, say, weah is 95.6, and Romario is 95.4, Weah is rounded to 96 while Romario is rounded down to 95, so there's often smaller differences between players then an entire point.

*And someone like Henry is more of an SS then a CF, but i just wanted to see how his rating would turn out. He should be a red overall as an SS but i've yet to make a good SS algorithm.

If you pay attention, Players like Rooney, Balotelli, Fred, they all have lower overalls then they should due to form. rooney form 4 is -1 from 91, balotelli form 2 is -2 from 86, fred form 2 is -2 from 84, Remy is a form 4 , -1 to 86 from 87, Andy caroll down to 84 from 85 due to form 4.

Also something i noticed is how careless some of the fringe sets or outdated classic sets can be, take burak yilmaz for example, two or three people comment that his technical skills are terrible, that he shouldn't even be above 75 ball control or greens dribbling, but he sits at 82 technique and 80 da ds, basically all yellows for technical ability despite his description. In players like these i just compared the comments to the default set and used some common sense. We should check for these sets and just fix them right away, some would say this is standardization to a stretch, but honestly that's way better then having totally overrated fringe league superstars. I've seen some comments that we make fringe players too complete, too technically unflawed, and to some extent, i agree that there are certainly examples of this in our database that we've yet to correct.




ATT1.7
DEF 0.15
BB 0.8
STA 0.35
TS 0.8
ACC 0.9
RES 1
DA 1.4
DS 0.75
AGI 0.45
SPA 1.5
SPS 0.6
LPA 1.1
LPS 0.3
SA 1.75
SPS 0.65
ST 1.2
TEC 1.2
HEA 0.75
JUM 0.6
MEN 0.4
TW 0.3
FK 0.1
CUR 0.05
AGG 1
TOTAL
x 19.8
-790






List of calculated Overalls so far:

SS


Spoiler: show
Messi : 100

Cruyff : 98

Cristiano : 97

Ronaldinho : 96

Pele : 95

Henry : 95

Cantona : 94

Baggio: 93

Rivaldo : 93

Stoichkov: 93

Raul : 92

Bergkamp: 92

Rummenigge : 92

Suarez : 92

Uli Hoeness: 91

Aguero : 91

Enzo: 91

Del Piero : 90

Mancini : 90

Tevez : 90

Litmanen : 89

Zola : 89

Le Tissier : 88

G. Rossi : 88

Luc Nilis : 87

Neymar : 87

Jovetic : 87

Gudjohnsen : 87

Alexis Sanchez : 87

Van Der Vaart : 87

Cassano : 87

Miccoli : 87

Recoba : 87

Totti : 86

Mutu : 86

Beardsley : 86

Di Canio : 86

Asprilla : 86

Palacio : 85

Ortega : 85

Giovinco : 85

Sturridge : 84

Robinho : 84

Arshavin : 84

Pedro : 84

Lamela : 84

Callejon : 84

Nenê : 84

Sheringham : 83

Brolin : 83

Podolski : 83

Malouda : 83

Quagliarella : 83

C. Vela : 82

Lavezzi : 82

Vucinic : 82

Kuyt : 82

Donovan : 81

Michu : 80

Menez : 80

Munian : 80

Welbeck : 80

Ljajic : 79

Markovic : 78

L. Muriel : 78

Iago Aspas : 78

Ibarbo : 78

Borini : 77


As you can see in the attribute weightings, there's a much heavier emphasis on technique and passing, and thus the more scoring centred ss's go down a bit, but the creator ss's go up (in relativity at least).


That 100 Messi is the 11-12 one, current messi is 97/96 ( 96 based some early season changes that are only reflective of the season so far like 97 da 92 sa)

pedro and vucinic's are prime sets.


Same thing, but now i've reworked it for WF

ATT1.7
DEF 0.15
BB 0.7
STA 0.5
TS 1.25
ACC 1.3
RES 0.75
DA 1.5
DS 1.2
AGI 0.8
SPA 0.8
SPS 0.4
LPA 0.9
LPS 0.7
SA 1.1
SPS 0.75
ST 0.8
TEC 1
HEA 0.55
JUM 0.5
MEN 0.4
TW 0.3
FK 0.1
CUR 0.05
AGG 1
TOTAL
x 19.2
-740




List of calculated Overalls so far:

WF


Spoiler: show
Best: 93

Robben : 93

Giggs : 92

Littbarski : 92

Johnstone : 90

Figo : 89

Jairzinho : 88

Claudio Lopez : 88

Caniggia : 88

Conti : 87

Overmars : 86

Kanchelski : 85

Moura : 85

Keizer : 85

Giuly : 85

Waddle : 84

Hulk : 84

Griezmann : 84

El Shaarawy : 84

Mertens : 83

Denilson : 82

Walcott : 82

Gervinho : 82

Agbonlahor : 80

Deulofeu : 80

Townsend : 78

B. Ruiz : 77


Again, the distinguishment between a natural WF and an smf who can play SMF might seem slight, but for example an SMF will be much more focused on long passing, less on speed, more on teamwork, passing, so a Figo would shine.

Also, WF's tend to have a small impact on the game, so I just aimed to have the robben's etc at 93 or so, and then from there the rest follow beneath, and I think this gives the WF an overall that's appreciative of what they can do, but rather then saying that they're a 99 overall wf, the overall says it's an 93 overall effect on the game, or importance.


Legends:

Didn't want to put them in the same list as it might kind of skew.

Spoiler: show
WF

Messi 2008 : 97

C. Ronaldo 2008 : 96

C. Ronaldo 2006 : 94

Henry 2008 : 90


A fix i'm going to try later is just adjusting header weigting from 0.9 to 0.75, and jump from 0.75 to 0.6, as i don't think these attributes should have so much weighting, after some reflect and observation.[/quote]

Same thing, but now i've reworked it for SMF

ATT 2
DEF 0.55
BB 0.65
STA 1.1
TS 1.8
ACC 1.7
RES 0.55
DA 2.4
DS 1.3
AGI 0.7
SPA 0.9
SPS 0.7
LPA 3
LPS 2.3
SA 0.75
SPS 0.7
ST 0.55
TEC 0.9
HEA 0.3
JUM 0.25
MEN 0.3
TW 0.9
FK 0.1
CUR 0.165
AGG 0.9
TOTAL
x 25.465




List of calculated Overalls so far:

SMF

Spoiler: show
Hagi: 95

Figo: 93

Ribery : 93

Giggs : 91

Di Maria : 90

Bale : 89

Candreva : 88

Beckham : 87

J. Navas : 87

Ginola : 86

Reus : 86

Camorenesi : 86

Cuadrado : 86

Ljungberg : 85

Donadoni : 85

Kewell : 85

Simao : 84

Shaqiri : 84

Joaquin : 83

Bertolini : 83

Krasic : 83

Willian : 82

Salihamidžic : 82

Arda Turan : 82

Nani : 82

Joe Cole : 81

Maxi : 81

Milner : 80

Gökhan Töre : 80

McGeady : 80

Quaresma : 79

Lennon : 79

Ben Arfa : 79

Sterling : 78

Ashley Young : 77

Mirallas : 77

Oxlaide-Chamberlain : 77

Feghouli : 77

S. Larsson : 77

Zaha : 75

Großkreutz : 74

Konoplyanka : 74



This position was one of the toughest to figure out how to weigh attributes, because there are just so many different kinds of SMF's, average speed, average dribbling, but exceptional long ball and final ability smf's like beckham/ larrsson, speed demons like lennon, technical demons like quaresma, defensive beasts like grosskreutz, and then all the mixes and amalgamations of these players.

My solution was to theorize that, the SMF is in itself, a sort of proclamation of limitedness, because all the greatest SMF's save the one's who are just slow, or poor finishers, become WF's, or, designated and built around to create scoring chances. SMF's are not so free, they are expected to be more two way, and the team depends on them less for being the difference maker, whether because they lack explosiveness, finishing, or final third ability.

In that sense the perfect SMF is just a player with great stamina, great speed, great dribbling decent defensive work rate, good team ability, and a great long ball. They aren't the assassins, and 99% of SMF's will only excel at 2-3 out of these 6-7 important abilities. In that sense, they are limited players, who are in their own role, limited.

Therefore I don't believe that Ox's or Quaresma's or young's are very underrated. If you look at their sets.. they are really only good at 2-3 areas, and in the rest, average.

My problem is that maybe I didn't put enough weigthing on speed... but one of the primary goals I had was to have figo at 93, beckham at 86/87. If you put any more weigthing on speed then it is at now, the likes of cuadrado and co would crush beckham etc.

If speed weighting went up.. Ox and co could come up a little bit in relativity.. but keep in mind, those speed monsters will even dwarf them.. so it's a very tricky balance.

This position is very hard, so if anyone else has comments about the ladder from this calculation, that will be great




Miscellanious

Spoiler: show
SMF


Hazard : 86

C. Ronaldo 2004 : 84


Same thing, but now i've reworked it for CMF, and DMF

ATT1
DEF 1.6
BB 0.95
STA 1.2
TS 0.6
ACC 0.75
RES 0.9
DA 1.0
DS 0.7
AGI 0.45
SPA 2.2
SPS 1.2
LPA 2.2
LPS 1.2
SA 0.7
SPS 0.8
ST 0.7
TEC 1.6
HEA 0.45
JUM 0.3
MEN 0.6
TW 2.0
FK 0.1
CUR 0.05
AGG 0.65
TOTAL
x 23.9
-1100




List of calculated Overalls so far:

CMF


Spoiler: show
Matthaus: 95

Xavi: 94

Iniesta : 92

Yaya Toure : 92

Deco : 91

Scholes : 90

Bernd Schuster : 90

Pirlo : 90

Lampard: 90

Seedorf : 89

Albertini : 89

Simeone : 89

Vieira : 88

Fabregas : 88

Modric : 88

Vidal : 88

Mendieta : 88

Rakitic : 88

Ze Roberto : 87

Thiago : 87

Conte : 87

Borja : 87

Effenberg : 87

Kroos : 86

De La Pena : 86

Marchisio : 86

Strootman : 86

Gerrard : 86

Sahin : 85

Pogba : 85

Tigana : 85

Van Bommel : 85

Gundogan : 85

Pjanic : 85

Kovačić : 84

Moutinho : 84

Gabi : 84

Barry : 84

Gravesen : 84

Fernandinho : 84

Montolivo : 83

Redknapp : 83

Wilshere : 83

Ramsey : 83

Aquilani : 83

Bender : 83

Cabaye : 83

Koke : 82

Nainggolan : 82

Ray Wilkins : 82

Paulinho : 82

Carrick : 81

Henderson : 81

Banega : 80

Matuidi : 80

Dembele : 80

Bradley : 80

Flamini : 80

Joe Allen : 79

Fellaini : 79

Sissoko : 77

Ramires : 77

M. Suarez : 76

Freddy Guarin : 74





Legends ~ 60's 70's and Primes

Spoiler: show
CMF

Gerrard : 94

Neeskens : 93

Robson : 91

Tardelli : 87

Gerson : 87









ATT1
DEF 3.3
BB 1.2
STA 0.85
TS 0.6
ACC 0.75
RES 1.4
DA 0.9
DS 0.7
AGI 0.45
SPA 1.5
SPS 1.0
LPA 1.6
LPS 1.0
SA 0.4
SPS 0.5
ST 0.4
TEC 0.9
HEA 0.6
JUM 0.5
MEN 0.85
TW 1.3
FK 0.1
CUR 0.05
AGG 0.4
TOTAL
x 22.2
-940




List of calculated Overalls so far:

DMF


Spoiler: show
Rijkaard: 96

Keane: 92

Redondo : 90

Cambiasso: 90

De Rossi : 89

Edgar Davids : 89

Guardiola : 88

Dunga : 87

Emerson : 87

Mascherano : 87

X. Alonso : 87

Paul Ince : 86

Hamann : 86

Matic : 86

J. Martinez : 86

Verratti : 86

Pirlo : 85

Senna : 85

Deschamps : 85

Makelele : 84

Busquets : 83

M. Silva : 84

G. Silva : 84

Assuncao : 83

Toulalan : 83

Desailly : 83

Mavuba : 83

S. Kehl : 83

Nicky Butt : 82

I. Helguera : 82

Inler : 82

Sven Bender : 81

L. Biglia : 81

Ambrosini : 81

Gattuso : 80

Luiz Gustavo : 80

Jon Obi Mikel : 79

Javi Garcia : 79

Albelda : 78

Iturraspe : 77





My thoughts on Pirlo's 'anomaly' rating, obviously I wouldn't have envisioned Pirlo being an 85, nor did I plan on it, if I had my vision, he would be 90ish, since it's pirlo after all. But what is he really? He doesn't do the DMF duties very well, at least if you look at his set. 83 stamina, 64 defence, 75 response, low mentality, low strength, low speed, no aerial ability. He's a deep lying playmaker, but why should the template be based on his strengths? A DMF should be the one that protects the back 4, the one that dominates loose balls and keeps opposition dominance out of the middle. Pirlo will do none of that, and he's crushed by the likes of keane, de rossi, Redondo. Even the likes of Guardiola/Alonso. They both have similarly godly passing ability, in every facet. But Guardiola is at least decent defensively, with 74 defence, and 82 response. That gap of 10 defence and 7 response makes a difference of 5 overall points alone. If Pirlo had values similar to his default set for pes 6 ish, he'd be up to 88+ Overall. As it is, I think it's justified that Pirlo has a good, but not great Overall, just as the likes of Aguero, Suarez et all shouldn't have the outstanding SS overall ratings even though they are historic level goal scorers, or Zlatan shouldn't have the godly CF rating to match his technical level and goalscoring rate, due to his deficiencies in key CF traits, deficiencies that have always been exposed in Europe.

And if I think of Pirlo (of the little I know), then I think of him dominating the weak midfield of England at the euro 2012, but then getting destroyed against spain being pretty unable to do anything to stop spain's midfield dominance.

Following this logic if it's to be applied to DMF's,
Pirlo hasn't been made to be a good enough DMF in his set to deserve more then the 85 overall he gets as a DMF, so I'm ok with the rating. The possibility is that he's underrated, but I don't know pirlo of 2006, or really, in general.








Original draft:


Spoiler: show
1000

cf

att 0.80
def 0.05
bb 0.70
sta 0.25
ts 0.45
acc 0.55
res 0.80
da 0.45
ds 0.20
agi 0.25
spa 0.30
sps 0.10
lpa 0.15
lps 0.05
sa 0.75
sp 0.60
st 0.80
tec 0.55
hea 0.80
jum 0.70 +1.__ height /1.83
men 0.40
tw 0.30
fk 0.10
swe 0.5

con
wfa
wff


Muller

79.2
1.55
56.7
20
36.45
46.75
79.2
35.55
15.2
20.75
22.5
7.5
10.5
3.5
72.75
46.8
76
46.2
74.4
58.8
64.25
31.6
6.3
3.9

wfa >4 ->tn=10(n-5), 8=40, n = wfa
wfa <4 ->tn=10(5-n), 1=-40, n =wff

wff >4 ->tn=5(n-4), 8=40, n = wfa
wfa <4 ->tn=10(4-n), 1=-40, n =wff

cond >5 ->tn=10(n-5), 8=40 | <4 ->tn=-5+-10(1-n), 1=-40

scoring 10
1-1 10
1-touch 10
lines 5
reaction 5
positioning 5
...
...




So how does this work? the player's rating in each attribute (1=99) will be mulitplied by a factor according to the importance of the attribute to the position, so that important attributes will have a higher weighting in the overall rating.

using this algorithm i put together quickly, i tested it on Gerd Muller. The numbers under Muller = the result, i.e 99 attack x .8= 79.2 etc.

at the end all the sums add to 1000 which divides by 10 to 100, creating a rating out of 100.

stars have base value, and wff/cond/wfa depend on simple ratio sequence in tn=a+d(n-1) (or x-n)

and i actually fucked up by forgetting to include aggression, but then decided that a lazy compromise is multiplying the total by the aggression value, because afterall the worth is then how much that ability is used right?

Nah just lazy. but it works, ish for now.

Using this Muller was calculated to be a base value 90.7, +wff (3)+wfa(3)+ cond (2)+ stars= 102.7

Now this calculation needs alot of small tweaks.. things i missed out, weighting which should be adjusted, but i want to leave this here so other people can fiddle with it or propose stuff for other positions. i think as a basic, this way of finding an overall doesn't have too many flaws, and is dynamic in that it accounts for position in an more accurate manner then konami's mostly useless overall rating system.

i find math boring so if other people want to give it a shot, it would be greatly valuable.


edit: i made a lazy fix ..

Using this Muller was calculated to be a base value 90.7,

instead of multiplying the base value by aggression (which would too unfairly handicapp less aggressive forwards), i set aggression to weight 8.0, used that as an additional value, then deducted 11 from the final total so that
+wff (3)+wfa(3)+ cond (2)+ stars= 110.62 (-11) = 99.6, make him the bench mark. I find it fitting that the benchmark CF gets the benchmark value, 99.


Following this i tried some other players.

i tried Marco Van Basten and got 89.9 base value, +7.36 + wff (3)+wfa(4) + cond (1)+ stars (-11)= 97

I tried Diego Costa and got 82.1 base value +6.8 agg +wff (1)+wfa(2) + cond (2) + stars (-11)= 85

I tried Diego Milito and go 88.97 +wff (2)+ wfa(3) +stars (-11)= 89


Do those ratings not seem pretty reasonable and reflective to most people?

I think with some more thoughtful tweaks they can be even better reflective... but i'm pleased with the room for adjustment... which seems balanced enough so far as i can tell.





Eto'o has a base value of 876.75 +agg = 952.75 +2+2+2+2-11= 92
possibly the 08-09 set is slightly incomplete and this isn't totally a fair reflection, i only added it to the DB a few days ago without indepth personal knowledge.














List of calculated Overalls so far:

CF

Ronaldo : 99

Romario : 98

Marco Van Basten : 97

Ruud Van Nistelrooy : 97

Shearer : 97

Falcao : 96

Batistuta : 96

Shevchenko : 96

Zlatan : 95

Henry : 94

Van Persie : 94

Drogba : 93

Villa : 93

Eto'o : 92

Vieri : 92

Inzaghi : 91

Lewandowski : 91

Edin Džeko : 90

Frédéric Kanouté : 90

Diego Milito : 89

Rooney : 89

Benzema : 88

Diego Costa : 85

Chicharito : 84

Last edited by vinnie on 2014 Dec 06, 07:27, edited 8 times in total.
Reason: added players (fabregas, kroos, modric, inler, kovacic, carrick, biglia, montolivo, aquilani, ince, butt, schuster), added SMF Overalls
If you don't put effort into your post, i won't put effort in my response.
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby Epsi » 2014 Nov 29, 16:50

If you want, I can put everything on a excel file. I already did with my previous files, I can do it for vinnie's calculations too.
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby RKukosama » 2014 Nov 29, 22:30

Epsi wrote:If you want, I can put everything on a excel file. I already did with my previous files, I can do it for vinnie's calculations too.


yes that would be good, also can you do beckenbauer for cmf/dmf
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby RKukosama » 2014 Nov 29, 22:32

also i dont think aggression should factor in too much, as its more of a play style then an attribute
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby vinnie » 2014 Nov 29, 23:04

RKukosama wrote:also i dont think aggression should factor in too much, as its more of a play style then an attribute

For CF/SS I really think it should have pretty significant weighting, and ibrahimovic is a classic example of why playstyle affects CF/SS efficiency or danger.

Just the other day I was watching Barcelona 2009-2010 videos of ibrahimovic, and 90% of the time there would be a cross, and where is your star 6 foot 5 200+ pound centre forward? Usually 10 yards OUTSIDE of the box. It was pretty laughable, to the point of pathetic.

A Cristiano Ronaldo is NOWHERE NEAR the efficiency of the best strikers of the last decades, only this last season has he finally hit respectability, but the last 5 years he's scored 50+ a season while having a worse conversion rate then most championship level or div. 2 strikers, I'm pretty sure he was at a pathetic 0.14 goals per shot rate, or one in every 7 or so shots. That's less then half of Messi from 2009-13, or prime Falcao, and less then 1/3 as efficient as Ruud van nistelrooy at his best for Man u and Madrid.

Isn't that amazing? He's half as effective as Messi/Falcao, 1/3 as effective as ruud, but pretty much matched Messi for goals since coming to madrid, and has honestly dwarfed the likes of Falcao/RVN in goals.

How the hell is that possible? Well He was averaging nearly 10 shots a game for a stretch. Most strikers are lucky to get 3-5 shots a game. Benzema gets maybe or or two shots every game and still manages to get 20 to 30 goals a season.

That efficiency rate is something valuable, but the sheer will of putting up shot after shot after shot has it's eventual benefit. A chichiarito/INzaghi has little if not the CONSTANT threat of pushing that defensive lines awareness to the limits of competition, always probing for holes, always ready to pounce. They are severely limited in terms of technical ability, but honestly they could both be effective against ANY team of any era just because of their hyper aggressiveness and hyper predatory skills.

Think about it, in Berbatov's golden boot season where he scored 20 goals in the league, Fergie didn't even bring him onto the bench for the UCL final against Barcelona in 2011. He didn't even make the bench. Who started? Chicharito.

That aggressiveness is certainly a valuable trait, if only for the offensive positions. You miss every shot you don't take after all. That's the lament of the berbatov's/ ibrahimovics.



About Beckenbaur CMF/DMF, well he's a 98 CMF and 98 DMF. there was a small difference, if he went down 1 point in any of his attributes, Beckenbauer would become a 97 CMF, because he's technically a 97.535 CMF, which rounds up to 98, and he was a 98.41 DMF



And the last thing I forgot to mention was my way of calculating jump, well for me I wanted just the total aerial ability, not just jump, because a 175 cm tall 96 jump player should not have the same value to be multiplied, as a 185 tall 96 jump player.

therefor my way was JUMP= height-183/2+jump

I use 183cm as the standard as 183 is average height (at least for strikers/cb's).

so 175 96 jump player would be 175-183=-8/2=-4+96= 92 total, This is the value I used to multiply against any given weighting, and I did this for all players.

to compare then how this is effective, the 185 player would be 185-183=2/2=1+96=97 total.

same jump (96), but their height difference (10cm) makes a displacement between their total aerial ability value, to become 92 vs 97
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby vinnie » 2014 Dec 03, 12:48

Same thing, but now i've reworked it for SMF

ATT 2
DEF 0.55
BB 0.65
STA 1.1
TS 1.8
ACC 1.7
RES 0.55
DA 2.4
DS 1.3
AGI 0.7
SPA 0.9
SPS 0.7
LPA 3
LPS 2.3
SA 0.75
SPS 0.7
ST 0.55
TEC 0.9
HEA 0.3
JUM 0.25
MEN 0.3
TW 0.9
FK 0.1
CUR 0.165
AGG 0.9
TOTAL
x 25.465




List of calculated Overalls so far:

SMF


Hagi: 95

Figo: 93

Ribery : 93

Giggs : 91

Di Maria : 90

Bale : 89

Candreva : 88

Beckham : 87

J. Navas : 87

Ginola : 86

Reus : 86

Camorenesi : 86

Cuadrado : 86

Ljungberg : 85

Donadoni : 85

Kewell : 85

Simao : 84

Shaqiri : 84

Joaquin : 83

Bertolini : 83

Krasic : 83

Willian : 82

Salihamidžic : 82

Arda Turan : 82

Nani : 82

Joe Cole : 81

Maxi : 81

Milner : 80

Gökhan Töre : 80

McGeady : 80

Quaresma : 79

Lennon : 79

Ben Arfa : 79

Sterling : 78

Ashley Young : 77

Mirallas : 77

Oxlaide-Chamberlain : 77

Feghouli : 77

S. Larsson : 77

Zaha : 75

Großkreutz : 74

Konoplyanka : 74




Miscellanious

Spoiler: show
SMF


Hazard : 86

C. Ronaldo 2004 : 84


This position was one of the toughest to figure out how to weigh attributes, because there are just so many different kinds of SMF's, average speed, average dribbling, but exceptional long ball and final ability smf's like beckham/ larrsson, speed demons like lennon, technical demons like quaresma, defensive beasts like grosskreutz, and then all the mixes and amalgamations of these players.

My solution was to theorize that, the SMF is in itself, a sort of proclamation of limitedness, because all the greatest SMF's save the one's who are just slow, or poor finishers, become WF's, or, designated and built around to create scoring chances. SMF's are not so free, they are expected to be more two way, and the team depends on them less for being the difference maker, whether because they lack explosiveness, finishing, or final third ability.

In that sense the perfect SMF is just a player with great stamina, great speed, great dribbling decent defensive work rate, good team ability, and a great long ball. They aren't the assassins, and 99% of SMF's will only excel at 2-3 out of these 6-7 important abilities. In that sense, they are limited players, who are in their own role, limited.

Therefore I don't believe that Ox's or Quaresma's or young's are very underrated. If you look at their sets.. they are really only good at 2-3 areas, and in the rest, average.

My problem is that maybe I didn't put enough weigthing on speed... but one of the primary goals I had was to have figo at 93, beckham at 86/87. If you put any more weigthing on speed then it is at now, the likes of cuadrado and co would crush beckham etc.

If speed weighting went up.. Ox and co could come up a little bit in relativity.. but keep in mind, those speed monsters will even dwarf them.. so it's a very tricky balance.

This position is very hard, so if anyone else has comments about the ladder from this calculation, that will be great.
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby Epsi » 2014 Dec 03, 13:15

Maybe just something more in DS and SPA, but the rest is really valid.
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby Epsi » 2014 Dec 03, 13:49

Sorry but I get 150 from CR7 in SM position, is there any quantity to subtract from the total?
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby bff » 2014 Dec 03, 13:51

Thanks for the explanation, vinnie. Your work is awesome. I plan to participate in this discussion more deeply soon, i'm just organizing some data and spreadsheets so i can start testing the algorithm properly and give my oppinion.

Also, a direct question: Does it make sense for you if i say that every player would have an overall rating for each position, even for the un-registered positions? For example (guessed numbers): Ronaldo would be a 99 in SS, 97 in WF, but we could also calculate his overall for DMF or CB for example, which would be a very low valeu (50-ish probably).

So, it would imply that every player could have like 11 overall ratings, one for each position, and there would be adjustments, of course, to reduce the rating drastically for a position which the player doesn't have the proper position assigned to them.

Of course, the main concern is to make a correct ranking for the player of the main registered positions, in first place. It will be certainly difficult to set all of different positions overall ratings to make sense to each other, in a collective way, but we certainly can work toward that direction.

But I tought about that, so we can spot players that would perform well in other positions besides their main one.

Does that make sense for you?


PS: I just messaged you both (vinnie and epsi) privately with some questions.
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby vinnie » 2014 Dec 03, 13:54

bff wrote:Thanks for the explanation, vinnie. Your work is awesome. I plan to participate in this discussion more deeply soon, i'm just organizing some data and spreadsheets so i can start testing the algorithm properly and give my oppinion.

Also, a direct question: Does it make sense for you if i say that every player would have an overall rating for each position, even for the un-registered positions? For example (guessed numbers): Ronaldo would be a 99 in SS, 97 in WF, but we could also calculate his overall for DMF or CB for example, which would be a very low valeu (50-ish probably).

So, it would imply that every player could have like 11 overall ratings, one for each position, and there would be adjustments, of course, to reduce the rating drastically for a position which the player doesn't have the proper position assigned to them.

Of course, the main concern is to make a correct ranking for the player of the main registered positions, in first place. It will be certainly difficult to set all of different positions overall ratings to make sense to each other, in a collective way, but we certainly can work toward that direction.

But I tought about that, so we can spot players that would perform well in other positions besides their main one.

Does that make sense for you?


PS: I just messaged you both (vinnie and epsi) privately with some questions.

I think that would work, my only concern is that some players are so talented (huge overall attributes total like Cristiano), that I'm not sure how they convert, but at the least, it would make sense to test a players overall on his other given positions.

I think I know what you mean about deductions based on position comfort... what you mean is like how pes 15 has position A, B, C in terms of comfort in that role? And then a solution could easily be, B =x 90%, C=x80%, so that if Cristiano is a 97 ss, and then becomes a 96 SMF, but he's only a B for smf, then his value would further be deduced by 10% to 87, Or Aguero is a 91 SS, then he's an 86 SMF, but SMF B so that he's
a 77 overall. This would really only be relevant for the new PES, but I can see how it has a logical use.


I saw your pm, i'll send you the excel sheet when I can.

Epsi wrote:Sorry but I get 150 from CR7 in SM position, is there any quantity to subtract from the total?

-1270.
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby Epsi » 2014 Dec 03, 14:05

The main problem of these calculations is that they give very high OVRs to powerhouse players (very complete) like CR7, which gets for example 90 OVR in CM position, OR 84 in DM, just like Pirlo..... this doesn't make sense to me, or better, I'd say it's not totally correct. I'd rather give more weight to the main key attributes for positions instead of spreading percentages in non-influent stats (like, for example, DS or LPA in CF, TS/ACC in midfielders).. I know they give players more individuality thanks to their completeness in every regard as player, but aren't key stats that make a player unique and special? Like Pirlo's vision, Messi's smartness, etc...
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby vinnie » 2014 Dec 03, 14:15

Epsi wrote:The main problem of these calculations is that they give very high OVRs to powerhouse players (very complete) like CR7, which gets for example 90 OVR in CM position, OR 84 in DM, just like Pirlo..... this doesn't make sense to me, or better, I'd say it's not totally correct. I'd rather give more weight to the main key attributes for positions instead of spreading percentages in non-influent stats (like, for example, DS or LPA in CF, TS/ACC in midfielders).. I know they give players more individuality thanks to their completeness in every regard as player, but aren't key stats that make a player unique and special? Like Pirlo's vision, Messi's smartness, etc...


I agree with that, but there is a solution, it's along what bff is talking about.

It's simply impossible to make individual position overalls that translates so that Cristiano with 2154 total attribute points can magically go from 97 overall in one calculation, to 50 or so in another, just think about how extreme that weigthing would have to be, Already in the difference between keane and Ronaldo's defence (85 vs 30, or 55), if you multiply that by the defence weighting of 3, that's already 15 overall points difference.

The problem is that a lot of traits have definitions and effects that change from position to position, rather then having unique traits important for that job alone. The traits are shared. If you put a CB like Kompany in a GKS algorithm, he'd get a decent GKS overall because of he already has extremely good defense, good response, good jump, and good BB.

I.e Ronaldo has 90 response, that's for his box ability, not for his hounding, but there's no difference when you put that 90 res in the def overall algorithm, it's just a value, and it's assumed this is a 90 relevant to DMF, not SS.

same with, how you define vision. For a DMF, 86 easily communicates vision and unique attacking talent, and amongst the DMF's Pirlo stands out by a big margin, so where he loses big in defensive comparison to other DMF's, he makes up that ground with the heavy weighting I gave to attack and long passing. but then, if you use an ss like Cristiano in a DMF algorithm, well he has 95 attack, and that really just loses the point of the high weighting, and there's no way to go around that because the trait has an effect that depends largely on the position. I wanted high vision dmf's like pirlo to stand out in the DMF algorithm as that's one of the reason he's so revered, but then Cristiano kind of breaks that intent with his 95 attack.

And think, if you made solely DMF traits stand out, there's almost zero reason, and Zero WAY to make pirlo higher then a white or green overall... remember.. 64 defence.. 75 response.. really the difference between pirlo's defence/response and a keane/desailly is almost bigger then the difference from him and Ronaldo :lol:

the solution is just position comfort caps. if he doesn't have the position as a possibility, multiply the overall by like 0.5 or 0.6 so that that cristiano's 90 cm becomes 54, the 82 dmf becomes 48. I think that makes sense.
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby Epsi » 2014 Dec 03, 14:31

Yes, I've already thought about it, and that's possibly the best option to follow up. Anyway, I've created a formula for AM, having 100 OVR for Maradona, I'm posting it here:
This is copy-pasted from excel so don't expect to be 100% clear, it is: Player Stats - Multiplier - Result

I'm putting by underlined the ovr I find weird/odd

Total multiplier: 23,7
Overall: -1100

If you want to test it, I'm happy to know the results.

Calculated OVRs:

Maradona: 100

Gullit: 98

Zidane (Juventus): 97

Platini: 96

Ronaldinho (PSG): 95

Rooney: 93

Iniesta (2009): 92

Gerrard (Classic): 92

Stojković: 92

Ballack: 91

Riquelme (Classic): 91

Socrates: 91

Kakà (Classic): 91

Pirès: 91

Ronaldinho (current): 91

Deco: 90

Nedved: 90

Seedorf: 89

Lampard (2004): 89

Silva: 89

S. Cazorla: 89

Sneijder: 89

Rui Costa: 88

Hazard: 87

Gotze: 87

James: 87

Riquelme (Current): 87

Ozil: 87

Hamsik: 87

Modric: 87

Kakà (Current): 87

Thomas Muller: 86

Kroos: 86

Kovacic: 86

Mata: 85

Oscar: 85

Pastore: 85

Coutinho: 85

Isco: 84

Mkhitaryan: 83

Nasri: 83

Hernanes: 83

Honda: 82


Spoiler: show
Attack: 98 1,4 137,2
0
Defence: 29 0,55 15,95
0
Stamina: 77 0,55 42,35
0
Stamina: 77 0,5 38,5
0
Top Speed: 79 0,6 47,4
0
Acceleration: 87 0,75 65,25
0
Response: 86 0,9 77,4
0
Agility: 88 0,45 39,6
0
Dribble Accuracy: 98 2 196
0
Dribble Speed: 88 1 88
0
Short Pass Accuracy: 96 2,4 230,4
0
Short Pass Speed: 83 1,5 124,5
0
Long Pass Accuracy: 98 2 196
0
Long Pass Speed: 82 0,8 65,6
0
Shot Accuracy: 89 1 89
0
Shot Power: 79 0,75 59,25
0
Shot Technique: 92 1 92
0
Free Kick Accuracy: 96 0,1 9,6
0
Curling: 96 0,05 4,8
0
Header: 83 0,5 41,5
0
Jump: 82 0,5 41
0
Technique: 99 2 198
0
Aggression: 81 0,9 72,9
0
Mentality: 87 0,6 52,2
0
Keeper Skills: 50 0 0
0
Teamwork: 83 0,9 74,7
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby bff » 2014 Dec 03, 16:04

Yeah, that makes big sense for overall calculations, but i wonder if there is any actual penalization that occur in-game for playing out of currently available position as well.
I tried to search for information regarding this, but i couldn't find anything useful.
I imagine it does have a penalty, as konami's overall suggests, but i can be wrong.
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby viktoristus » 2014 Dec 03, 16:18

Inspired by your overall algorithms, I wanted to match how CPU chooses the starting XI for matches in WE9LE, and I arrived at the conclusion that I should also include special abilities. At least in PES5/WE9LE, in Denmark (current DB), Agger has better overall than Bjelland just by attributes, but Bjelland has *Marking and *Sliding and therefore is selected over him. When I remove these two special abilities, Agger is preferred. The same goes in Chelsea for Diego Costa and Remy - Remy with his *Reaction is preferred, but when I remove it, Diego Costa is selected over him.

Other examples:
CHILE: C. Bravo (none) v J. Herrera (*Penalty Stopper, *1-on-1 Stopper)
SSC NAPOLI: R. Cabral (none) v Andujar (*Penalty Stopper)

Another important value is Height, at least for CB and CF. I don't know whether it is calculated together with Jump, or just as a value itself. In the Chilean NT, Medel looks better in almost every value than Roco, however he is more than 20 cm shorter (171 v 193(1)). Medel is much stronger that when I edit his height to 182 cm, even though he is a registered DMF(2), the CPU will choose him as CB over Roco because he has so much better values (incl. relevant special abilities). But 20+ cm difference is too much.

(1): He is 188 on PSD, I take heights to my DB from Transfermarkt.
(2): Registered position also plays a role for the overall. I estimate the penalty for the "playable, but not registered" position somewhere around 3-7 points, but I'm not sure about the exact number. However, I know for sure that there is a penalty. Even between similar positions like SMF and WF: a registered WF, unless having a noticeably (that 3-7 points) greater overall, will not be picked to SMF over registered SMF.

@ C. Ronaldo being high on CMF overall: I think this shouldn't be much of an issue, since he hasn't got CMF even as a playable position. He is very good in almost all abilities, many of which are included in CMF calculations. Great CBs will also make good GK overalls, unless you would extremely weight the GK skills attribute. I think that for the unplayable positions the penalties go way higher, I would say even to the point that any player who has CMF as a playable position will get picked over C. Ronaldo.
Last edited by viktoristus on 2014 Dec 03, 16:46, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby bff » 2014 Dec 03, 16:42

Yeah, i thought about it before. It would be right to include the cards in this algorithm too. Maybe specific cards could add to a specific attribute,
just like:
P06 - Pinpoint Pass >> +~5 in LPA
P12 - Goal Poacher >> +~5 in SA
or something like that, even adding to a combinantion of stats.
It does make things more complex, tho.
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby Epsi » 2014 Dec 03, 19:52

Sorry vinnie, but why aren't you taking in consideration Form, WF* and stars anymore? It looked like an opportunity to make it more accurate (especially the use of form to make more individualism on players)
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby vinnie » 2014 Dec 04, 23:45

Epsi wrote:Sorry vinnie, but why aren't you taking in consideration Form, WF* and stars anymore? It looked like an opportunity to make it more accurate (especially the use of form to make more individualism on players)

too many factors, and I couldn't figure out how to properly balance weighting for stars. The first time I tried doing overalls I included stars and WFF/WFA, but that was chewing on too much, every time I tried to adjust some weighting, the entire thing would become way out of sync, and it would take forever just to properly adjust every tiny little detail.

I wanted to first get attribute balancing correct, as this is the aspect I consider fundamental, the rest is kind of just garnishing. I did consider Form, but only as a punishment, not as a reward, i.e form 4 is -1, form 2 is -2, form 1 is -4 overall.

If you want you can always give it a shot yourself to work on the completed overalls by adding wff/wfa stars weighting, but I'm going to finish the rest of the positions before considering adding these aspects, as they aren't fundamental imo.
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby Epsi » 2014 Dec 05, 19:16

I can give a try, how do you feel about the AM Calculation? I guess we can take mine for CBs too and adapt it to the common format you're using.
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby vinnie » 2014 Dec 06, 07:24

just looked at it now (amf), looks pretty good. looking at how you weighed it, it's very similar to what I had in mind. I guess you should run it by rob as well.
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Re: Overall rating Algorithm

Postby Epsi » 2014 Dec 06, 16:20

While I'm here, I have something also for WB/SB (and comparison on how a player is better on the former or on the latter depending on its stats) and CB too, but I've focused a lot on GKs this afternoon. I had a very realistic ladder that I'm gonna post, I just think I've given too emphasys on technical and outfield skills, which gives a small boost on Neuer stats which is fair, but also to Chilavert for example, who goes on a debatable value of 99. All the other overalls look spot on, except for some modern players who may look underrated (Handanovic under J. Cesar), but his case is due to his absence of jump, and if we had form accountancy, J. Cesar would probably have been worse (since he has form: 5).

Calculations:
Spoiler: show
x20,25; -750

Attack: 30 0,1 3
0
Defence: 82 3,3 270,6
0
Balance: 79 1 79
0
Stamina: 68 0,3 20,4
0
Top Speed: 69 0,3 20,7
0
Acceleration: 71 0,4 28,4
0
Response: 87 2,7 234,9
0
Agility: 80 0,9 72
0
Dribble Accuracy: 54 0,3 16,2
0
Dribble Speed: 56 0,1 5,6
0
Short Pass Accuracy: 57 0,3 17,1
0
Short Pass Speed: 62 0,1 6,2
0
Long Pass Accuracy: 59 0,7 41,3
0
Long Pass Speed: 66 0,6 39,6
0
Shot Accuracy: 44 0,3 13,2
0
Shot Power: 80 0,8 64
0
Shot Technique: 44 0,3 13,2
0
Free Kick Accuracy: 44 0,1 4,4
0
Curling: 48 0,05 2,4
0
Header: 45 0,3 13,5
0
Jump: 82 1,3 106,6
0
Technique: 54 0,5 27
0
Aggression: 61 0,4 24,4
0
Mentality: 73 0,6 43,8
0
Keeper Skills: 84 3,5 294
0
Teamwork: 73 1 73


Overall ratings (I'm underlining particular cases and writing what I think about them):

Schmeichel 99
Chilavert 99 (due to his outfield skills and TW)
Buffon 98
Neuer 96
Kahn 96
Casillas 95
Victor Valdes 94 (but he has an outstanding current set so the calculation is fair)
Zoff 93
Zenga 93
Banks 93
Pagliuca 93
van der Sar 92
Yashin 91 (but he pays the low BB and the lower DEF compared to his other skills)
Cech 91
Peruzzi 90
de Gea 90
Toldo 89 (just slighty better, like a 91, in my personal vision)
Maier 89
Courtois: 89
Lloris 89
Reina: 89
J. Cesar: 89
Handanovic 88 (a bit odd to see him under J. Cesar etc.. from what I've already stated above)
Seaman 88
Marchetti: 88
Casillas (current): 88
Buffon (current): 87
Sirigu: 87
Eneyama: 87
Caballero 86
Kameni: 86
Hart: 86
Navas: 85
Cillessen: 85
De Sanctis: 84
Sorrentino: 84
Diego Alves: 84
Weidenfeller: 84
Perin: 84
Ochoa: 84
Szczęsny: 84
Howard: 83
Neto: 82
Muslera: 82
Mignolet: 81
Abbiati: 81
Bardi: 81
Guaita: 80
Oblak: 80
Provedel: 78
Butland: 77
Cragno: 75
Scuffet: 74


If you vinnie want to make some tweaks on it, feel free to do it. I feel it is on the right road, just needs something like outfield skills to be slighty reduced, and maybe some "tall gk" skills (Courtois, Toldo, Handanovic) to be slighty enhanced.

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