Advise Post # 1 - Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

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Advise Post # 1 - Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

Postby sencesor » 2009 Jan 21, 20:45

Thought it would be a good idea to import some of the interesting threads from the old site, cheers :)

Credit to GoonerLover66/Tom

Now, with every set of stats you make, I'm sure you'll encounter or even use some statistics to prove a point or even to decide what sort of value to give a player. They can be an invaluable source to making stats, but the problem is how they are interpreted and how they are used in discussion and in making stats in general. I'm going to go over a few "statistics" that you'll come across and probably get some hassle over. So let's begin!

Goal Tallies
Any stat maker at one time or another will be told that they've either overrated or underrated a player's Shot Accuracy due to the player scoring X amount of goals. I think I can openly say that this arguement is absolute rubbish. Firstly, how often a player will score on Pro is determined by a wide variety of factors simply because goals can be scored in all sort of ways! Shot Accuracy is about how well a player places his shots and how accurate they'll be, it has nothing to do with how often the player will score.

For example, a lot of people have been giving Cristiano Ronaldo high Shot Accuracy values lately because of his impressive Goal Tally at the end of the season. Now, if you break down how he scored his goals, you'll find that there weren't too many that were scored through actual placement of shots. Alot of his goals were scored from penalties, free-kicks, 1-on-1 situations with the keepers, the way he strikes the ball, his immense pace, his positional sense and sharp reactions. None of which are affected by Shot Accuracy!

And even then, you'll find that he had more shots off target than any other Premier League player, and that they by far outnumbered the amount he had on target. So it's not exactly great placement, is it?

Assist Tallies
Another flawed statistic. There is no doubt that people will say "X Player set up Z amount of goals last season, I think he should have AB for his Short Passing", and again you'll have to ignore them! Last season, Carton Cole had more assists than Xabi Alonso. Does that make him a better passer? My arse it doesn't! In no way do these statistics tell you how a player set up the goal. Did he do a simple lay-off? Was it a headed flick-on? Was it a 60-yard long pass? Was it a dangerous through ball? Was it a cross? Or was it simply luck? You can't tell much from Assist Tallies, all you get a simple value. You have to, without a doubt, watch how the player set up the assists and how frequently he did that throughout the season. Because in no way is Kalou a more accurate passer than Mikel Arteta!

Pass Accuracy
Just don't, this statistic means nothing. If we were to fully implement this in our stats, we'd have a Nemanja Vidic who had higher passing attributes than Paul Scholes! These statistics get boosted by simple conservative and economical passes. What do I mean? Well last season, there was a match where Barcelona had 21 consecutive passes amongst their own defence. So you'll find that Puyol probably has a higher Statistic than say....Ruben Baraja in this area. And that's wrong, because it's the way a player passes that matters.

Total Appearances
This is a figure that can go either way, it can be a valuable source to rating a player's Condition, and also it can a flawed value. An example? Take Xabi Alonso's Total Appearances and compare them to Niko Kranjcar's, they're lower aren't they? Does that mean that Xabi Alonso isn't as fit as Kranjcar? No, it simply means that Kranjcar played more games than Xabi. You have to remember that Xabi is a fully-paid member of the Rafa Rotation Policy, and thus hasn't got the chance to play every game possible!

However, this can also be misconstrued in another sense. Stephen Kelly played every Premier League game last season, as did Pepe Reina. However, Pepe Reina played more games than Stephen Kelly last season. Does that mean that Reina is fitter than Kelly? No, again, it's a situation of capabilities not capacity. Stephen Kelly, as I'm sure you're aware, is a Birmingham City player. So he clearly doesn't have the chance to play European or lots of Cup games due to the all-round ability of his team, but it does it mean that given the chance, he wouldn't be able to play every game available to him? No. So really, this is an area you have to take with a pinch of salt when making stats

Clean Sheets
Remember, Clean Sheets do not make the keeper and nor should they have any effect on the Keeper Skills attribute! Pepe Reina has kept the most clean sheets in the Premier League for the last 3 seasons. Does it mean he's a good keeper? Yes. Does it mean he warrants the best Keeper Skills value? No. Reina's handling is poor in comparison to top-flight keepers. He relies on his immense reflexes, command of his back-four and his superb positional sense as a keeper. None of which are affected by the Keeper Skills stat.

You also have to remember, that Clean Sheets aren't all due to the keeper. Remember the Defence plays just as big a part, if not more so, than the Goalie in keeping Clean Sheets. I'll use Reina again as the example in this experiment, he has some top quality defenders in front of him. A Carragher & Hyypia partnership can be one of the best on its day, and can make the difference to keeping the match goaless, and making it lousy with goals.

Some other statistics to be aware of;
Shot Accuracy (This is appearing on more and more sites)
Yellow & Red Cards
100m or Speed Test results

You have to remember that the people who use Statistics in their arguements in the way I have mentioned, generally tend to be pig ignorant about how stats work or are flawed in their understanding in stats. Please, I beg of you, do not let this be you!

My next "Advise Post" will be on Footballing Vocabulary, complete with definitions ;)

Last edited by sencesor on 2010 Nov 23, 15:41, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Advise Post # 1 - Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

Postby Mouarikh » 2009 Sep 15, 22:12

This is a really important post that is definitely worth reading and should be required reading for all new members. I am posting now to bump it since I have seen people citing statistics lately with increasing frequency.

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Re: Advise Post # 1 - Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

Postby prosser2k10 » 2009 Sep 15, 22:23

This is a good thing and if people take the time to read it then it will help alot, you make some great points especially the CR 1 i think this should definately be used for classics like Arthur Friedenreich & Paulino Alcantara have unral goal records but who knows how they scored them

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Re: Advise Post # 1 - Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

Postby Bruno Laschek » 2010 Jul 06, 09:47

As a newbie like me its very interesting to read your explanations.
Rating a player in an appropriate way seems to be a very tough process. Especially for classics, where the information is rare, mostly biased and only focuses on the good abilities.
Thank you!

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Re: Advise Post # 1 - Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

Postby amier » 2010 Oct 07, 08:16

totally agree with the post

that's why stats should be done by people who really watch games.. follow divisions, teams and/or certain (key?) players
instead of watching/reading highlights or youtube segments

thank god for this forum where people can actually discuss these things and combine knowledge to balance these stats/individualism of the players into the game

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Re: Advise Post # 1 - Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

Postby CollinK » 2010 Nov 22, 13:45

Great post! totaly agree.. nice for typing it out this way.. unarguable and clear..

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Re: Advise Post # 1 - Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

Postby sencesor » 2010 Nov 23, 15:42

Just wanna clear it up again that this is Tom/GoonerLover66 work and not mine, and use this opportunity to thank him for it.

Indeed a great post mate, thanx. :)

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Re: Advise Post # 1 - Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

Postby ErlandAbazi » 2012 Jul 26, 11:35

Great post, thank you. :)

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Re: Advise Post # 1 - Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

Postby Korinov » 2013 Mar 24, 11:46

We have to do something with both this post and the 2nd & 3rd parts as well. Some good ideas in there but also an insane amount of old standards bullshit that will only confuse newbies (specially in the second part). We could include some bits that may be actually useful in the "Attributes explained" thread, I'd delete everything else as soon as possible.

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Re: Advise Post # 1 - Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

Postby Korinov » 2013 Apr 23, 09:13

Bump.

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Re: Advise Post # 1 - Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

Postby jurgens » 2013 Apr 23, 09:22

Just take whatever you'd keep and post it and i'll delete the rest.

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